Jamaica

Jamaica, home to 2.9 million people, has made significant strides in reducing public debt - from 140 percent in 2012 to 64.9 percent in 2024. However, the economy was significantly disrupted by Hurricane Melissa in 2025, the strongest storm in Jamaica's recorded history and one year earlier, Hurricane Beryl.

Strong pre-crisis macroeconomic management, including disciplined fiscal policy, credible monetary frameworks and multi-layered disaster risk financing, helped cushion the initial impact. However, Jamaica remains highly vulnerable due to a narrow economic base, heavy dependence on tourism and agriculture, which provide over a third of jobs, and high exposure to extreme weather events.

The World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework for 2024-2027 focuses on supporting green, resilient, and inclusive development by boosting human capital, creating higher-quality jobs, and strengthening resilience to shocks.

Read More

Read Less

Jamaica's macroeconomic outlook remained broadly positive through the third quarter of 2025.  Hurricane Melissa struck on October 28, 2025 as a Category 5 storm – the strongest and most destructive to make landfall in Jamaica’s history.  Damages and losses are estimated at $12.5 billion, equivalent to approximately 60 percent of 2024 GDP.

While the country was previously on track to reach a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent by 2025/26, the hurricane has delayed this goal.

Jamaica’s economy is estimated to have contracted by 0.4 percent in 2025. This contraction is expected to deepen to 1 percent in 2026 as the effects of Hurricane Melissa continue to impact the island. A rebound is projected for 2027 and 2028, with growth averaging 2.7 percent, driven by reconstruction and a gradual normalization of the tourism and agriculture sectors. Public debt is now expected to increase to 68.5 percent of GDP before resuming a downward trajectory to 63.8 percent by 2028.

Inflation remained moderate at 3.9 percent in 2025, but is expected to rise to 6.3 percent in 2026, driven by supply disruptions, increased reconstruction demand, and elevated global energy prices.

The labor market remained relatively stable through late 2025, with an unemployment rate of 3.3 percent. However, Hurricane Melissa disrupted poverty reduction efforts. Using the upper middle-income poverty rate of $8.30 per day (2021 purchasing power parity), the share of Jamaicans living in poverty is projected to rise from 19.3 percent in 2023 to 19.9 percent in 2026, before seeing a modest recovery to 18.4 percent by 2028.

The outlook is subject to high uncertainty, with risks including potential spikes in global energy prices from Middle East conflicts, persistent climate threats, and long-standing barriers such as crime and high labor informality.

Read More

Read Less

The World Bank’s program in Jamaica includes investments totaling approximately $550 million across lending, advisory services, and analytics. The program supports:

• Boosting human capital, including access to quality secondary education and improved social protection.
• Creating higher-quality jobs through improved access to finance, enhanced entrepreneurship, and a better business environment.
• Strengthening resilience to shocks through disaster preparedness, climate-resilient infrastructure, and natural resource management.

Jamaica is building resilience and creating jobs with initiatives like the Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project, which has reached over 1.6 million people, and the Rural Economic Development Initiative II, which has supported climate-smart farming and off-grid renewable energy. The Jamaica Climate Resilient Fisheries Program has helped train fishers for alternative livelihoods.

The World Bank also has supported Jamaica’s digital service platforms, including the Jamaica Business Gateway and the Jamaica Development Application Portal, both launched under the Foundation for Competitiveness and Growth Project.

Read More

Read Less

The World Bank Group’s 2024-2027 Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Jamaica outlines a strategic approach to supporting the country’s development goals. It was informed by consultations with government, civil society, the private sector, and development partners, and is closely aligned with Jamaica’s own priorities. The CPF centers on three interlinked areas: boosting human capital, creating higher-quality jobs, and strengthening resilience to shocks.

The strategy adopts a One World Bank Group approach, combining financial support, technical assistance, and knowledge work from the World Bank, IFC, and MIGA. It also emphasizes inclusion—particularly for women and youth—and aims to help mobilize private investment while strengthening public institutions and climate resilience. The framework reflects Jamaica’s continued focus on building a dynamic, sustainable, and inclusive economy.

Read More

Read Less